A Personal Note to The Wilmington Search Subscribers

This post is specifically directed to the subscribers of The Wilmington Search.

Getting Up to Speed

It has been a while since I have posted to The Wilmington Search and I would like to get you up to speed on what has been going on with me and why I took some time off from writing to The Wilmington Search.

In early February, I began to pull the latest market statistics for January for Wilmington’s housing market.  If you follow me on Twitter, you would have gotten those market stats.

Frankly, I was a bit shocked and knew personally that I if I was to be one of the Realtors who would still be in the business by the end of 2009, there were some projects that I had on hold that I needed to jump on fast. So I decided to put a hold on everything I was doing to make some adjustments to my business.

Seller’s Strategic Pricing Market Analysis Guide

The biggest project that I completed in February/March was a 35 page ( it actually continues to grow as I continue to add more research to it) Market Researched Guide to Pricing a Home in the current market conditions.

Market conditions are continuing to place pressure on Wilmington home values and this is going to be a tricky year for sellers.

Because many real estate agents seem to tout the same “Wilmington is doing better than the rest of the country” mantra in an effort to drum up local consumer confidence, it can be quite challenging when sitting down with sellers and discussing pricing strategies in light of current market conditions. In the guide, I acutally show a comparison chart of how Wilmington, North Carolina, Southeast of the US and the National Housing Market statistics truly compare. You would be surprised to see how Wilmington really stacks up to the national numbers.

I understand and respect the noble effort of seeking to keep consumer confidence strong and I do believe Wilmington has many excellent things going for itself in terms of market strength. Yet, I see many challenges that aren’t typically addressed when I talk with sellers who interview other agents to discuss listing their home.

Low Market Analysis Skills = Wrong Pricing Strategy

For homeowners who need to sell right now, or even over the next 6 months, may not be getting the best advise on pricing in this market.

Two types Agents with Low Market Analysis Skills:

1. How Low Can You Go?

This agent may say the local housing market is all bad in an underlying effort of seeking to underprice your home. With little to no real skill and understanding of real estate market dynamics, this agent simply seeks to create a fire sale to produce a transaction.

2. Sure Your House is Worth $$$…

On the other hand, and probably even worse, is the agent who does not understand what is truly happening in our local market and aides the seller in overpricing the house in a declining market. An overpriced listing in this market will in most cases sell for less than the underpriced property, if it sells at all.

So here is what I have found: local market conditions are more tricky right now than ever for sellers. Having the right information along with the ability to understand that information in how it relates to selling a home for top dollar in this market is vitally…vitally…vitally important!

GOAL: Guide Sellers to Make Confident Desicisions on Pricing Strategies

So in response to this great need, I have put together a close to comprehensive market analysis that looks at the national market trends and our local market trends along with researched pricing strategies that factor in both a Comparative/Competitive Market Analysis and Trending Market Analysis.

This pricing guide was created to guide sellers to become educated decisions makers on how to price their home competitively in this market, without leaving money on the table.

If you or someone you know who does not have a home on the market and is thinking about selling in this market, I would like to extend the invitation for you to contact me.  I will be writing more on pricing strategies and how I consult sellers on pricing in the future.

Some Personal Updates

In my personal life, I would also like to share that I just had my third child in March! We have two boys ages 3 1/2 and 14 months.

We now have a little girl – Elena Faith Dowdy! She is beautiful and doesn’t like to sleep at night.

Starting with the weekend Elena was born, my business took off and I have barely had time to rest which is great considering the market. But I hope to begin to start regularly contributing back to The Wilmington Search keeping you up to date on all that is happening in our local housing market.

Being in Business for the Long Haul

On the note about me ensuring that I am one of the Realtors who is still in business by the end of 2009, I would like to share a few personal notes with you on my business.

First of all, real estate is not a hobby for me. I take it very seriously and it is an entrepreneurial  pursuit for me and not just a job. If I am not working with clients, I am either working on the business’ operations or researching market and industry trends in an effort to give my clients an advantageous edge over their competition.

For Me, Real Estate is a Family Venture

Secondly, my real estate business supplies my family’s needs.

My wife, who formerly taught in both New Hanover and Brunswick County school systems now stays home with our three children and works in the business with me as well. I don’t normally go into my personal background here on The Wilmington Search, but I think it can be helpful for readers to understand where I coming  from when I write about real estate. I also make those points because there are Realtors out there who are part time and real estate is seen as just extra income.  For me, real estate is a full time business where I am devoted to being the very best Real Estate Consultant I can possibly be for my clients.

I Appreciate Your Business and Referrals

So I would like to be straightfoward and ask you for the opportunity to discuss your real estate needs. Your personal referrals are welcome as well. I take great care of all of my referred clients, keeping those who send their friends and family to me up to date on how things are going all throughout the process.

Well, I want to say it is joy for me to have the opportunity to share with you what I am seeing in the market here on The Wilmington Search.  To that end, thank you for your business and your continued readership of The Wilmington Search.

Wilmington NC Real Estate Market Trends | Tracking Monthly Overall Housing Market Activity

Putting it All Together

In my opinion, this is the coolest graph on the web for the Wilmington NC Real Estate Market (what a geek I am…go ahead and laugh. I can take it).

This info, at the time of this writing, can only be found on The Wilmington Search.

In this graph, we can see the relationship of new listings coming on the market, properties that are going under contract and homes that are closing each month. Very cool!

Why is this information cool (I’m digging the ‘geek grave’ deeper here)?

In 2004, which you cannot see here, the orange line went above the blue line and stayed very close to the blue line for a few months. This brought inventory levels really low, giving buyers less choices.

So what? you say

The market (sellers, buyers, and many real estate agents) didn’t realize what was happening till late 2004 / early 2005.

Homes sold in weeks instead of months. Home Prices shot up, as buyers scrambled to buy the best house possible and were willing to pay top dollar in multiple offer situations.  And in response to this buying mayhem, an insane amount of homes came on the market in 2005, 2006, and 2007.

That is right! Homeowners who were happy with their home, now all of sudden were thinking about selling as their ears caught wind of what their neighbors were getting for their houses. And thus, the Seller’s Market Vortex sucked in the multitudes.

In other words (pushing up my glasses and adjusting my pocket pen holder ), when the blue and orange line gets close and remains close, the red (sales) will follow, triggering a shift to another seller’s market (the worst time to buy if you can help it).  When everyone notices the red line (and more importantly the effect on home prices), the market will have already shifted towards the downward trend to a buyer’s market.

Seller’s markets cannot be sustained and it is not likely we will have anything similar to what we previously experienced in 2004 to 2006 in the Cape Fear Region for sometime (years).

Now don’t tell me you didn’t just learn something.

Thank you or Walt help us buy our next house is good enough for me.

Check out Lessons Learned to learn more about Housing Market Cycles.

Stay Up to Date on the Wilmington Real Estate Market

If you enjoy staying up to date on what is going on in the local Wilmington NC real estate market, you will want to sign up for email updates from The Wilmington Search.

If you are familiar with using RSS readers, here is the RSS Feed.

You may also like to:

• Find out How I work as a Buyer’s Agent
• Get the most updated Market Reports Here
• Get the latest blog posts on the Housing Market Here
• Learn more about The Wilmington Search Here
• Know the Mission of The Wilmington Search
• Contact Us Here!

Wilmington NC Real Estate Market Trends | Tracking Monthly Pending Home Sales Index

Record Low Pendings in November and December 2008

In December 2007, I couldn’t believe the record low Pendings for the Wilmington NC real estate market.  I thought that was a sign that 2008 would be a rough year. Yet, to my surprise, pending contracts continually increased from the low December numbers starting in January 2008. Pendings peaked in May 2008 at 288 written offer to purchase contracts.

Sure enough, Wilmington followed the bell curve that I described in my post on home sales market trends and followed a downward trend for the rest of 2008.  And when comparing the peak of 2008 to the peak in 2007, pendings were off by 25%.

After the peak in May, the steady decline in Pendings frustrated sellers who needed to sell in 2008.

In the 4th Quarter of 2008, Pendings went to a new record low reflecting my suspicion that I mentioned in my thoughts on The Wilmington Search Monthly Market Reports for November and December.

Further Price Correction in 2009

I believe it is possible that the low numbers in November and December could be a bottom for contracts written per month.  Very tough to make that call with still much uncertainty with the economy. But the effect of this drop in Pendings on home prices has not been realized yet. Though less listings coming on the market helps adjust the effect of low pendings, giving us a somewhat balanced absorption rate, there will be further price correction pressure on the current inventory.

Simple Supply and Demand

Again, this is the natural economic law of supply and demand.

High supply+low demand=prices come down.

Just look at the gas station’s advertisement of gas prices today compared to gas prices last year.

Stay Up to Date on the Wilmington Real Estate Market

If you enjoy staying up to date on what is going on in the local Wilmington NC real estate market, you will want to sign up for email updates from The Wilmington Search.

If you are familiar with using RSS readers, here is the RSS Feed.

You may also like to:

• Find out How I work as a Buyer’s Agent
• Get the most updated Market Reports Here
• Get the latest blog posts on the Housing Market Here
• Learn more about The Wilmington Search Here
• Know the Mission of The Wilmington Search
• Contact Us Here!

Wilmington NC Real Estate Market Trends | Tracking Monthly Housing Market Absorption Rate

A Somewhat Balanced Absorption Rate?

Wilmington’s Absorption Rate has not really been that bad. If you didn’t get a chance to read it already, I explained why the Absorption Rate for the Wilmington NC real estate market has held onto to a somewhat stable market status.

I Thought We Were in Serious Trouble

At the beginning of 2008, I thought we were in for a lot of trouble.  Read my post explaining what Absorption Rate is and you will see what I mean when you look at the graph above. You can also read my last Absorption Rate Update back in June of 2008. As we progressed along, the absorption rate improved in

Wilmington NC Real Estate Market Trends | Tracking New Listings Coming on The Market Monthly

Predicting Home Sales & Home Sales Price

Home Sales and Average Sales Price are the typical market indicators that are mostly discussed on the news.  I do look at these market indicators in order to gain insight into the market, but I realize that they are more of a reactionary indicator of many other market indicators.

For example, Pendings allow us to see the future of home sales. National Assocition of Realtors has begun publishing the Pending Home Sales Index a “looking into the future market indicator”.  Pendings are the homes that have received an acceptable purchase contract and are now headed to closing.

If you know how many homes are going under contract, you can pretty much anticipate or predict about how many home sales will be posted over a the next two months. Also, though home sales are down, if less homes come on the market, that can cancel the downward effect of lower home sales on home prices.

Simple supply and demand.

Why is this Graph Important?

So in this graph, we can see how many homes came on the market each month from January 2006 to December 2008.  In 2007, you can see that a lot of homes

My Top Ten Most Interesting Photos on Flickr

According to Flickr.com, these ten photos are the most interesting photos in my collection of photos on Flickr.com.  They are not necessarily my favorite photos, but I thought I would share what Flickr.com ranks as my most interesting photos.

I believe this list is ranked from a combination of views, people saving certain photos as favorites, as well as photos people have commented on. If you haven’t checked out my photography of Wilmington NC already, click on one of these photos to go to my photo collection on Wilmington NC.

#1: Dining Room | Landfall Home | New Construction

I love the arches and vaulted ceilings in the dining room of this home.

#2: Red Paddle Boat at Wrightsville Beach NC

One really cool thing about Wrightsville Beach NC is the public docks. Boats of all shapes and sizes dock here. Even little red paddle boats.

Wilmington NC Real Estate Market Trends | Tracking Monthly Housing Market Home Sales

Wilmington’s Real Estate Market Peaked in 2006

Where most real estate markets across the nation peaked in 2005, the Wilmington NC real estate market peaked in June of 2006. Since that time, home sales have been on a roller coaster ride….down.

Over the course of a year, home sales typically follow a bell curve with the first and last three months of each year being the months with the least amount of sales. Spring and Summer always has a higher number of home sales.

The Downward Trend

In spite of these seasonal dips and rises in 2007 and 2008, overall home sales have been on a

Foreclosure Kure Beach Condo Duplex with Ocean Views | Part 1 | Deal or No Deal?

Working with clients who are looking at purchasing a beach vacation home in the Carolina and Kure Beach area (also known as Pleasure Island), we came across this foreclosure a few months ago that looked promising.

I mean, a new home this size and this close to the beach (1 block to a quiet section of Kure Beach with expansive views of the ocean from the 3rd floor) at this price is unheard of! Unit 1 of this Condo Duplex was already under contract at a significantly higher list price.

It seemed too good to be true.

The townhouse like condo had just come on the market. And since foreclosure listings typically have very few photos and those photos are typically really bad, I immediately set an appointment to go check this property out for my clients (who are out of town).

My initial reaction to foreclosure listings is “what is wrong with this one”?

My Thoughts on the December 2008 Wilmington NC Residential Housing Report

Get December’s Market Report Here

I held my breath waiting for December’s numbers to come in. November’s home sales were rough. Sure enough, December was up significantly from November, yet still down from the same period in December 2008.

Wilmington NC Home Sales

In December, home sales were up 32% from November 2008. Yet, when compared to December 2007, home sales were still down by 17%.

In January 2009, I’m expecting home sales to be slightly down in comparison to December 2008. Pendings were low in December which is typical. Less buyers write contracts in December.

Too busy buying Christmas presents right?

But, I believe Pendings will significantly increase in

Wilmington NC Residential Housing Market Statistic Report for December 2008 | Free PDF Download

Click the image above to open the pdf market report. Click the link below to read:

My Thoughts on the December 2008 Wilmington NC Residential Housing Report

If you liked this free market report, you may wish to sign up for email updates to receive future Wilmington NC Real Estate Market Reports by email.

This Month in Real Estate (US): December 2008

My Thoughts on the November 2008 Wilmington NC Residential Housing Report

Get November’s Market Report Here

I anticipated a drop in Home Sales in November 2008 for the Wilmington NC real estate market. But I was not prepared for how steep of a drop it would be.

As I mentioned in The Big Thing I am Watching Out for in 2009, I was glued to the news for the greater part of the 4th Quarter of 2008.

I knew the implications of the uncertainty that was growing in the consumers’ mindset. As they observed one bad news report after another,  it created an increasing fear of spending that would show up in our local real estate market as it did throughout the nation.

And November’s Home Sales Numbers proved it!

Wilmington NC Home Sales

Overall, home sales in Wilmington were down

Wilmington NC Residential Housing Market Statistic Report for November 2008 | Free PDF Download

Click the image above to open the pdf market report. Click the link below to read:

My Thoughts on the November 2008 Wilmington NC Residential Housing Report

If you liked this free market report, you may wish to sign up for email updates to receive future Wilmington NC Real Estate Market Reports by email.

New Construction Bungalow Short Sale in Hampstead NC

While working with a couple from New York just after Thanksgiving, I came across this short sale in Hampstead NC.  For the price, it really stood out to me as great value for the money. The house didn’t work for the couple in New York and since it was the last house on the tour, I decided to take a few pictures and share this house with you here on The Wilmington Search. [NOTE: This is not my listing.]

This Carolina Craftsman Bungalow was built in 2006 and is located in Belvedere Plantation in Hampstead NC.  It has 2634 square feet with 3 bedrooms downstairs and a finished room over the two car garage with a full bath.  It has a total of 3 and 1/2 bathrooms.

The yard is very private.  When facing the home, there is a house to the left, but to the right and back, the house is surrounded by trees.  Beyond the trees in the backyard is the Country Club Golf Course.

This home has been on the market (as of the date of this post) for 238 days (DOM).  It was originally on the market for $414,900.  They have had two price reductions since coming on the market.  Today, this house is priced at $379,900. A very competitive price in my opinion, and less than what the builder owes the bank.

As you scroll through the photos below, if you think this home could work for you, please click here and mention the “Hampstead Bungalow Short Sale” in the comment section. I will send you more information on this property.

So let me give you a quick tour of this great buy!

Hampstead Home for Sale | 2 Car Garage

There was a truck in the driveway that I didn’t want in the photo, so I couldn’t get a good photo of the front of the house.

Hampstead Home for Sale | Front of the Home

So these two will have to do.  You can see the great detail given to this home by the builder.

Hampstead Home for Sale | Entry/Foyer

This foyer was the first thing that really got my attention. I normally don’t see this level of detail in this price range.  This is an impressive entrance for this home. In this photo you can see the front door which is stained glass.

Click Here to Continue Viewing Photos of the New Construction Bungalow Short Sale in Hampstead NC

The Big Thing I am Watching Out for in 2009

Starting in September 2008, I found myself glued to the news for the later part of 2008 as the future of our financial system seemed to be in the balance (at least according to the news).

I knew it meant another hit to the housing market which has seemingly been under pressure for sometime now.  Sure enough, low Wilmington Home Sales in the 4th Quarter reflected the “hold your breath and hope for the best” reaction of consumers.

Yet, the Big Three had my attention more than anything. Not so much the Big Three specifically but what Big Three job losses would represent to our economy – and the potential ripple effect it could further bring. I had to lay aside my “do they deserve a bail out” opinion and side with the stabilization of our economy.

As many banks began major lay offs, other companies followed suit in the fourth quarter of 2008.  I don’t have the exact number in front of me, but we lost a lot of jobs in the fall of 2008.

I personally had several buyer clients whom I was working with during this time period who put a halt on buying till after Christmas in fear that layoffs could get out of control.

I knew the financial systems would get worked (or should I say will get worked) out and that Wall Street will eventually see a recovery.  But…

The Big Thing I am Watching Out For in 2009 is…